UPDATE

   Brought to you by Catherine Darwin       For the week of september 30, 2019     YOUR WEEKLY SMILE     What type of vehicle should you drive in the fall? An autumn-mobile!         NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE       New Home Sales shot up a breathtaking 18% year-over-year in August with the 12-month average hitting a post-recession high! The 713,000 annual rate was 7.1% over July, even after that month’s 31,000 unit upward revision. Pending Home Sales saw a nice 1.6% jump in August, sending the measure of contracts signed on existing homes up 2.5% versus a year ago. Expect more growth in existing home sales over the next month or two. 
Home prices continue to rise at a slower pace. In July, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose just 0.1%, the FHFA price index for homes financed with conforming mortgages, only 0.4%. Good time to sell, good time to buy.
        REVIEW OF LAST WEEK       POLITICS, TRADE DISTRACT FROM ECONOMICS… House Democrats launched  an impeachment inquiry amidst speculation the White House may limit investment in China, so stocks fell despite the economic positives. Headlines drive market swings, but economic growth, earnings, and interest rates ultimately matter and they’re all fine. Plus, trade will be uncertain till a deal is made, and impeachment needs a 2/3 vote from the Republican Senate. Economically, Personal Income and consumer spending went up strongly in August, while inflation stayed below the Fed’s 2% target. Jobless claims remain at historic lows, and the final read for Q2 GDP was a decent 2.0%. The week ended with the Dow down 0.4%, to 26,820; the S&P 500 down 1.0%, to 2,962; and the Nasdaq down 2.2%, to 7,940. Bonds fluctuated but finished flat to slightly ahead. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .03, to $103.67. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell back down “near historic lows.” Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW?… The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting 2019 will see existing home sales grow from 5.34 million to 5.39 million; new home sales from 617,000 to 660,000; and single-family starts end at 876,000, the most since 2007.         THIS WEEK’S FORECAST       MANUFACTURING REBOUNDS, SERVICES, JOBS STAY STRONG… Fears of a manufacturing slowdown should be allayed as the ISM Manufacturing Index heads back into growth territory. ISM Non-Manufacturing is forecast to show continuing expansion in the services sector, the vast majority of our economy. The September jobs report is expected to deliver steady growth in wages and Nonfarm Payrolls. NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.         FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH       Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Wall Street expects a rate drop in December to end the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 46% probability of change is a 54% probability the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00% AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Oct 30 1.75%-2.00%
Dec 11  1.50%-1.75% Jan 29 1.50%-1.75%
Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Oct 30    46% Dec 11     68% Jan 29     57%           BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK     The last quarter of the year starts tomorrow, so now’s the time to start setting up for next year’s success. Reach out to prospects and customers you’ve been too busy to contact. Re-activate your networking activities. Scope out new growth opportunities.       Catherine Darwin
Loan Originator
NMLS# 1606718
4301 Westbank Drive, Building B, Ste 150
Austin, TX 78746 Office:(512) 450-1222
Mobile:(512) 801-4606
Fax:(512) 420-9500
cdarwin@hometrust.com
www.catherinedarwin.com
                This e-mail is an advertisement for Catherine Darwin. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Hometrust Mortgage and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Hometrust Mortgage. HomeTrust Mortgage, Company NMLS# 149932, Company Phone: 713.369.4000. Branch NMLS# 808495.         This e-mail was sent to janie@beecreekrealty.com.
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